Retropost

I'm writing this from December 2023 as a note to... someone. Anyone. Myself, perhaps.

As I watched the results come in, I remember the sense of utter bewilderment at the news. I could tell that thing would unfold wildly and chaotically - like a steel wire that had snapped & was lashing around - but I hadn't imagined the degree of chaos & bitterness it would entail. And the inexorable rise of charlatans, spivs, liars, cheats and just the plain evil.

Any now, here we are, 7 years later. There is still no resolution. No solution. No outcome to this idiotic decision. Personally I think that it is more akin to Prohibition - which took 14 years to unwind (so 7 more to go) - but we do seem to be approaching a tipping point.

One thing that I didn't appreciate - and do in retrospect - is the fact that the pro-EU consensus masked a lot of problems; it was a convenient whipping boy when things didn't go well in the UK, which could be blamed for why things weren't possible (VAT on womens sanitary products, for eg). And, whilst I saw it, I did it from a position of priviledge & didn't see the consequences, in my arrogance.

The thing I have (re)learned about populism is that it is the last resort of people who are struggling. People aren't evil, but when all political parties - save 1 - say "its your fault" and the other says that it isn't, but blames someone else then people will listen to that 1 party. Moreover, if there is a gulf of people who have consistently been never listened to & the scale of their problems are growing, then this resentment & fury will go somewhere.

The anti-EU crowd managed to knit together a very effective coalition of the (genuinely & with good reason) disaffected - and the liberal middle didn't appreciate the danger until it was much too late. I also think that the last few years were also enabled by the fact that Elisabeth was extremely old and couldn't carry out her duties properly; the problems of a monarchy are that, when the monarch is incapable, things drift - and drift they most certainly have since 2016.

Still, as I say, we appear to be at a tipping point.

Labour have steered clear of Brexit ever since Johnsons 2019 victory and have allowed it to implode on them - and now the Tories 'own' Brexit in all its forms, with Labour running on average 20pts ahead of the Tories in the polls. Given that a GE is scheduled to be held at some point in the next year or so, a landslide is predicted - but the smart money is that Sunak will call it in October 2024. So, another 10 months of this shower to endure.

Sadly, Labour have repeatedly stated they don't intend to rejoin the SM or Customs Union - which I think is a mistake, albeit an understandable one. I suspect that they want some technical fixes to upgrade the TCA treaty over time - but I doubt that the EU has the appetite for that. Perhaps a treaty that broadly replicates a Norway-style SM membership? I dont know. It all feels very cherry picking.

The danger for Labour is that, unless they deliver, they'll be a 1-term government. "Not being the Tories" will only take you so far - and with a thumping majority, people will expect noticeable change, not just tinkering.

I sincerely hope that they get 2 terms and the Tories manage to deal with the poison of Brexit and 'immaculate sovereignty' and the UK (at least) rejoins the Single Market in the next 7 years (we are, after all, only halfway), but I miss the old certainties.