Um

Well, um, that happened & I didn't anticipate it. I mean, I thought it might happen, but May had invested so much political capital (hers & her ministers) over the last 2 weeks that I though a last minute U turn was pretty much impossible. Clearly, I was wrong.

So, um, right. What happens now then?

Ok, so no vote today, means that no amendments discussed & voted on so far have any meaning (unless Parliament votes to pick up where it left off in 2019), so there is no Benn amendment that prevents a no-deal. Similarly, the government has declared that, as yesterday was a political statement (which, to be fair, it was), there is now no need for May to return to the house 21 days later to make a new vote.

I don’t think this will go unchallenged as ‘here’s the deal you have 10 minutes to pass it or the economy dies’ isn’t going to win any friends in Parliament - though I wouldn’t put it past May, tbh. It is not as though she hasn’t consistently done this for the last 2 years.

I suspect that No Deal is still a real danger as no binding vote to prevent it has happened – and now there is no prospect of a binding vote happening. Mind you, given that HMG can – at its own initiation – withdraw A50, opting for this would have to be something that was deliberately chosen rather than accidental. Given how bloody minded May is I would say there is perhaps a 20% chance she would go down this path in a ‘no-one likes me and I don’t care’ sulk – but if we end up with a new Tory leader (e.g. Raab) then I’d put these odds at 75%, purely because of Tory party members toxic political machismo.

There is absolutely zero prospect of a modified Withdrawal Agreement happening, only some non-legally binding words in the Future Arrangement section, so – for May - this is simply disaster delayed, at the expense of yet another massive blow to the governments authority.

Part of me wonders just how many more humiliating defeats this government can take (contempt of parliament – no-one has resigned! 3 defeats in one day - no-one has resigned!) Typically the government would implode any minute now, but there is very little time for a leadership election and the one thing that is keeping the Tories at least vaguely together is their absolute, total and utter terror at the prospect of a Corbyn government.

So where do we end up?

Honestly, I do not know.

Any change of direction would require a change of leader and, as mentioned, there is not enough time for May to be replaced.

I think Norway is now off the table because a second referendum is now in vogue

A second referendum between Mays deal & Remain would probably see Remain win by a small margin (2%) - but this is still in the margin of error for the polls, so is both risky & won’t be the clear ‘will of the people’ politicians are desperate to ascertain.

Unless something happens to break the deadlock (i.e. May resigns, switches policy to Norway+, gets real changes to the WA, a war/pandemic/asteroid strike happens etc) I think we’re going to see a general election at the start of the new year. But the polls still show that we’d end up with a hung Parliament again (electoralcalculus.com predicts we’d end up with 286 Tories & 284 Labour MPs – so this could possibly be a Lab-Nationalist coalition) but this means we’d be back at square 1 – only this time with Jeremy Corbyn.

Hm. At least the Tories could be relied upon to be a solid opposition. Perhaps its for the best?