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Post-Match Analysis
Dec. 13th, 2018 08:47 am(Cross posted from FB as politics is in the news)
Ok, so May has won her leadership election, but the number of people with no confidence in her is over 100 which is a horrible position for the country to be in at any point, and doubly so during a major international crisis.
Effectively, May doesn’t lead one third of her party, who – protestations to the contrary – feel that a narrow victory isn’t sufficient. Given that the majority of the rebels are from hard-Brexit caucus who demand that ‘democracy be respected’ when it comes to Brexit, we are at toxic levels of irony.
Similarly, the promises May made to secure victory (“it is not my intention to lead the party into a general election in 2022”) mean that she has managed to win at an enormous price. I expect the tensions in the cabinet to really start boiling as Brexit-day starts.
Interestingly, the form of her promise – couched in terms of intentions rather than absolute guarantees – leaves a lot of wriggle-room for her if, gosh, she reverts to form and changes her mind, so lets see if this most slippery of prime ministers does what she says, or does what she usually does. This is an important point as the Deputy Chairman of the Tory party also walked back her comments almost immediately, so I'd put this 'promise' in the same category as 'I'd like to lose weight and get down to 80 kilos' - its an intention and yes, I'm working towards it, but its not something thats foremost in my mind when I eat.
But I digress.
I suspect the immediate aftermath is that May is going to reshuffle her cabinet – she has long been irritated with several members (Hammond being one) & had wanted rid of him since before the 2017 election. Now that she cannot be challenged, she has the space to make the cabinet she wants for the first time since she came to power. In 2016 she was hampered by the leave-remain split, so I think this is going to happen.
On Brexit, I still can’t see how she can get ‘her’ deal – in its current form - through Parliament because the EU is not going to give anything more on the backstop. As the withdrawal agreement is so thoroughly associated with her its inevitable thumping defeat is going to be a personal humiliation & I still expect a vote of no-confidence in the next month or so.
But perhaps something could be offered to sweeten the deal. May might pivot towards a softer Brexit (after all, the ERG won’t ever support her - barring her actually declaring war on the EU - so why appease them?), and whilst the backstop might remain, there is actually something the EU could – and would – offer that would see the bill get through the commons: a legally binding commitment that the UK could, if it so desired, return to the EU in future and retain all its current exemptions.
To be clear, I don’t think that May would accept this as it betrays various red lines, but its something that could be offered to get the majority of MPs to get behind the deal.
More generally, how does the sideliing of the Ultras affect the Tory party psychodrama?
Barring a major act of disloyalty (like them all resigning the Tory whip and following Enoch Powells path into the DUP) May is now impossible to challenge & extremely hard to dislodge. Despite this, ‘her’ deal is & remains anathema to the ultras. I expect them to rebel, repeatedly, between now & Brexit day, in effect adopting a scorched earth policy and preventing any other business. Whilst they may support May in votes of confidence, they will not support her during any prospective deals – and they only have to keep their nerve for 106 days.
Ok, so May has won her leadership election, but the number of people with no confidence in her is over 100 which is a horrible position for the country to be in at any point, and doubly so during a major international crisis.
Effectively, May doesn’t lead one third of her party, who – protestations to the contrary – feel that a narrow victory isn’t sufficient. Given that the majority of the rebels are from hard-Brexit caucus who demand that ‘democracy be respected’ when it comes to Brexit, we are at toxic levels of irony.
Similarly, the promises May made to secure victory (“it is not my intention to lead the party into a general election in 2022”) mean that she has managed to win at an enormous price. I expect the tensions in the cabinet to really start boiling as Brexit-day starts.
Interestingly, the form of her promise – couched in terms of intentions rather than absolute guarantees – leaves a lot of wriggle-room for her if, gosh, she reverts to form and changes her mind, so lets see if this most slippery of prime ministers does what she says, or does what she usually does. This is an important point as the Deputy Chairman of the Tory party also walked back her comments almost immediately, so I'd put this 'promise' in the same category as 'I'd like to lose weight and get down to 80 kilos' - its an intention and yes, I'm working towards it, but its not something thats foremost in my mind when I eat.
But I digress.
I suspect the immediate aftermath is that May is going to reshuffle her cabinet – she has long been irritated with several members (Hammond being one) & had wanted rid of him since before the 2017 election. Now that she cannot be challenged, she has the space to make the cabinet she wants for the first time since she came to power. In 2016 she was hampered by the leave-remain split, so I think this is going to happen.
On Brexit, I still can’t see how she can get ‘her’ deal – in its current form - through Parliament because the EU is not going to give anything more on the backstop. As the withdrawal agreement is so thoroughly associated with her its inevitable thumping defeat is going to be a personal humiliation & I still expect a vote of no-confidence in the next month or so.
But perhaps something could be offered to sweeten the deal. May might pivot towards a softer Brexit (after all, the ERG won’t ever support her - barring her actually declaring war on the EU - so why appease them?), and whilst the backstop might remain, there is actually something the EU could – and would – offer that would see the bill get through the commons: a legally binding commitment that the UK could, if it so desired, return to the EU in future and retain all its current exemptions.
To be clear, I don’t think that May would accept this as it betrays various red lines, but its something that could be offered to get the majority of MPs to get behind the deal.
More generally, how does the sideliing of the Ultras affect the Tory party psychodrama?
Barring a major act of disloyalty (like them all resigning the Tory whip and following Enoch Powells path into the DUP) May is now impossible to challenge & extremely hard to dislodge. Despite this, ‘her’ deal is & remains anathema to the ultras. I expect them to rebel, repeatedly, between now & Brexit day, in effect adopting a scorched earth policy and preventing any other business. Whilst they may support May in votes of confidence, they will not support her during any prospective deals – and they only have to keep their nerve for 106 days.