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Well, on one hand, I’m glad that the current butchery in Lebanon has come to an end, but on the other hand, I’m reasonably confident that the conflict there has not actually ended per se. (Who’da thunk it, eh? More conflict in the Middle East? Wow.)
The thing is, the UN resolution, as it stands satisfies no-one, and only really sets the scene for more carnage. Consider: from Israel’s perspective, they’ve not got their soldiers back, nor have they disarmed Hezbollah & have conclusively sabotaged their own efforts to sideline Hezbollah in domestic Lebanese circles. Moreover, with Israel now having direct evidence of Syrian & Iranian anti-tank arms being used by Hezbollah against the once-mighty Israeli tank forces, this does not bode well.
Hezbollah has been the big winner; not only has it fought the Israeli army effectively (given the considerable constrains on it) & maintained a semi-constant rocket barrage into Northern Israel despite the actions of the Israeli airforce, its gained combat experience & (more importantly) public support by recasting its militia as being (in Lebanese eyes if no where else) a ‘plucky freedom fighter’ (which its not) rather than the reactionary, illiberal, Islamic motivated organisation who supports & is the mouthpiece of a quazi-legal militia. In fairness, I have to say that the civilian wing is also a semi-democratic party who run many public & charitable services, but the ethos of the organisation is militant, & its success against Israel will only strengthen its public appeal & anti-Israel stance (if this is possible).
Lebanon has lost control of large chunks of its territory to Israel thanks to the actions of the army & airforce; moreover Israel has done them no favours by attempting (effectively) a ‘friendly invasion’ to destroy the Hezbollah insurgents in the area. The Lebanese government is now probably fatally undermined (certainly south of the Litani River, this is now fertile Hezbollah recruiting ground) & the idea that the Lebanese government is going to have the political will to disarm Hezbollah – a key supporter of the Lebanese government – demonstrates an almost wilful political blindness, despite the UN force coming to the area. If nothing else, UN force is going to have considerable problems in its mandate; as Hezbollah is a popular part of the Lebanese government – disarming them will probably precipitate an election, which will see them gain seats, following their recent performance. The Un force at best, faces a low-grade conflict between the Lebanese & Hezbollah forces, at worst, it faces the possibility of “being in the way” should another conflict kick-off.
On balance. I suspect that Israel is going to drift towards the right, politically, making conflicts more likely, not less. I suspect that Hezbollah is going to become the dominant political force in Lebanon (displacing or possibly even becoming the Lebanese government), making conflict more likely, not less. In addition, I suspect that the next time this happens (and it will), there is a vastly greater chance of triggering a major conflict between Israel & either (or both) Syria & Iran, if only to stop support & supplies getting to Hezbollah.
S
The thing is, the UN resolution, as it stands satisfies no-one, and only really sets the scene for more carnage. Consider: from Israel’s perspective, they’ve not got their soldiers back, nor have they disarmed Hezbollah & have conclusively sabotaged their own efforts to sideline Hezbollah in domestic Lebanese circles. Moreover, with Israel now having direct evidence of Syrian & Iranian anti-tank arms being used by Hezbollah against the once-mighty Israeli tank forces, this does not bode well.
Hezbollah has been the big winner; not only has it fought the Israeli army effectively (given the considerable constrains on it) & maintained a semi-constant rocket barrage into Northern Israel despite the actions of the Israeli airforce, its gained combat experience & (more importantly) public support by recasting its militia as being (in Lebanese eyes if no where else) a ‘plucky freedom fighter’ (which its not) rather than the reactionary, illiberal, Islamic motivated organisation who supports & is the mouthpiece of a quazi-legal militia. In fairness, I have to say that the civilian wing is also a semi-democratic party who run many public & charitable services, but the ethos of the organisation is militant, & its success against Israel will only strengthen its public appeal & anti-Israel stance (if this is possible).
Lebanon has lost control of large chunks of its territory to Israel thanks to the actions of the army & airforce; moreover Israel has done them no favours by attempting (effectively) a ‘friendly invasion’ to destroy the Hezbollah insurgents in the area. The Lebanese government is now probably fatally undermined (certainly south of the Litani River, this is now fertile Hezbollah recruiting ground) & the idea that the Lebanese government is going to have the political will to disarm Hezbollah – a key supporter of the Lebanese government – demonstrates an almost wilful political blindness, despite the UN force coming to the area. If nothing else, UN force is going to have considerable problems in its mandate; as Hezbollah is a popular part of the Lebanese government – disarming them will probably precipitate an election, which will see them gain seats, following their recent performance. The Un force at best, faces a low-grade conflict between the Lebanese & Hezbollah forces, at worst, it faces the possibility of “being in the way” should another conflict kick-off.
On balance. I suspect that Israel is going to drift towards the right, politically, making conflicts more likely, not less. I suspect that Hezbollah is going to become the dominant political force in Lebanon (displacing or possibly even becoming the Lebanese government), making conflict more likely, not less. In addition, I suspect that the next time this happens (and it will), there is a vastly greater chance of triggering a major conflict between Israel & either (or both) Syria & Iran, if only to stop support & supplies getting to Hezbollah.
S
