It is looking like we’re heading towards a brick wall

Or a series of them, more accurately.

Firstly, the Labour MPs who voted for a Norway approach to Brexit confirmed last night that they would now not vote for a “Norway Plus” style deal. Their position is to have a second referendum, period.

Secondly, Norway has confirmed today that it would not accept the UK rejoining EFTA (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan)

Between the 2 developments, Norway is off the table, despite Nick Boles efforts, whatever various ministers might feel or think.

Ok, there might be a way around this, depending on

a) how Parliament votes - a second referendum might be voted down, leaving Norway as the only alternative, and

b) whilst a senior Norwegian politician might not want us in there are other factors to consider, including:
  - other EFTA nations do want us in (Iceland, for example),
  - we could probably arrange for the EU to lean on EFTA nations to accept us in the transitional arrangement, and,
  - the UK is still a contracting party in our own right to the EEA agreement

Also, we could just go for a "shadow" EEA arrangement - which is just like Norway & uses their institutions, but isn't in EFTA. Weird & unsatisfactory for everyone - but hey, people voted for Brexit despite the warnings.

So its not totally off the table but its now really really unlikely.


Given this, I predict that we’re going to get an Article 50 extension and a second Referendum in 2019. What fun.

Moreover, I think that I can predict the choices: I suspect it will be a straight choice between ‘Leave with Mays deal’ or ‘Rescind Article 50 & Remain in the EU’. My reasons for this are the following:

Firstly, Mays Deal is going to be on the ballot – May is not going to allow her efforts to be frittered away by the fact that she is a grossly incompetent would-be-autocrat with the appeal & charisma of a tapeworm. I also think that she would prefer to break the 'no second referendum' red line rather than pursue a (now probably beyond-reach) Norway option as the Norway plan would involve free movement of people - the reddest of her red lines.

Secondly, Remain is going to be on the ballot as Labour has said it would support this in the event that no GE is possible & this would get support from the SNP, LibDems and sections of the Tory party.

As to the No Deal option – whilst the ‘hard leave’ caucus is still a very strong voice, but there is a general cross-party support that no deal is not – can not – be an option, and Grieves amendment has made this a political (if not legal) necessity.

As such, I think that its going to be a straight "May or Remain" choice.

Before remain voters (such as myself) start celebrating, the polls show that if this does come to pass then we end up with a democratically legitimized catastrophe. Surveys show that whilst Mays plan is deeply unpopular & Remain is the single strongest position, there are still more leavers than remainers. In any head-to-head poll – using several polling methods - Mays deal would win.

Crucially, this is before there is any popular campaign to boost this position.

We're set to lose a second referendum. Against Mays universally loathed deal.

F**k.

Hmm

Part of me wonders if Mays determination to push on with the vote is her way of getting the serial moaners in her party to put up or shut up.

If correct, her attitude could be described as “Have I not done everything in my power to satisfy you? Has this agreement not been the product of a cabinet that included Davis, Johnson, Raab, Gove, Patel, Fox, Leadsom, McVeigh, Morduant, Greyling & Baker? Committed Brexiteers, every one, making policy at the highest level of government? Have I not listened and given you a veto at every single stage? If what I have negotiated is not acceptable despite me being the best ally you have ever had then I don’t see why I should bother. This is your best bet. Back it or risk everything. I’m done.“