Chinese Curses

Yesterday reminded me of the end of 101 Dalmatians, with Cruella DeVille racing along the road, her car in flames. And you can see why - yesterday we had the Government being found in contempt, the passing of the Grieve Amendment & the EU court ruling that A50 could be withdrawn – which means that ‘No Deal’ is now categorically & definitely off the table, despite all claims to the contrary.

Even if the Brexiteers might point out that an amendable motion is not the same as an amendable law so its not binding – the loss of confidence that would emerge from a government going down that route, especially now its already been found in contempt, would see the government collapse. Yesterday demonstrated that the Government had a serious 'loyalty shortfall' - so the Brexiteers position, whilst technically true, is irrelevant.

Which puts some very prospects in play.

Personally I think that the chances of us remaining in the EU are now greater than they have ever been since the 2016 Referendum (about 50/50) though it also depends on how the various factions on the Tory backbenchers act. We could end with a new government, a general election, a new referendum, a A50 withdrawal, or a Norway-style Brexit - or something else entirely.

Of all options available, I think that “Norway” is now the worst option on the table – but to flip this, I think that Norway would be something that happens if the worst comes to the worst, and frankly, this is not a disaster in the way that a Fox/Johnson/Raab ‘Singapore on Thames’ ambit would be. Faced with this, I suspect that Labour is going to continue its slow crablike crawl towards having an actual policy and will finally settle on a second referendum, whilst the Tories are going to choke & fight each other.

To be candid, I want to remain in the EU & "Norway" is inferior to that position - though it does have some reassurances that being a member of the EU lacks and it could be sellable to the public in a way that Kryptonian Superthatcherism cannot. I also think that the fact that Rudd, Gove & other senior members of the Cabinet are mentioning this (though I can’t see anything from Javid) and Boles voting to support Grieve to be interesting – though I sincerely hope that I am wrong and we end up remaining in the EU after all.

The only question is how do the Ultras act? Do they take the confirmation that ‘no deal’ isn’t realistic & vote against May? Or do they take fright at the fact that Brexit is slipping away and vote for Mays deal (constitutional abominations & all) because there might be no Brexit? Or do these go for a more moderate position (ha!) and throw their weight in behind Boles Norway+ plan?

Interesting, interesting times.

Bewildered

Ok, I confess I am confused.

May is apparently considering getting her deal passed in 2 stages with a separate parliamentary ‘lock’ on the Irish Backstop - not to change it to give the UK  the ability to leave the backstop unilaterally (because that would void the deal), it would be to get the deal approved by Parliament in chunks, no more.

I can’t see the advantage of this plan to be honest, though it does strike me as being too clever by half as you can’t agree half an international treaty. Can you imagine it if you could? Iran & North Korea would be overjoyed:  "We agree with section 1, where you agree to give us money & lift sanctions, but we’re not going to approve section 2 where we surrender our nuclear weapons. Yes, I know we said we were going to in our negotiations and in the document we jointly agreed but Parliament has a lock on that bit. Sorry - now please pay up."

Either the deal passes in full & it applies in full, or it doesn’t. Breaking it down into smaller bite-sized chunks seems to be a way of maximizing the chaos as this agreement has been negotiated as a single package. Further, if the backstop can have a separate lock, what about the £39Billion? What about the role of the ECJ? Can the Brexiteers have separate locks on each thing that Parliament doesn’t like? And how in the world does this help pass the the Withdrawal Agreement?

And what happens should the first section be passed but the Irish backstop not? Then what? Does May go back to Brussels to be told ‘no’?

And if she does amend the treaty so that the UK can leave the backstop unilaterally that voids the deal.

It seems clearer than ever that Mays 'cunning plan' boils down to pure bloody minded desperation.